Trickle-down democracy
Toolbox
Peter Mallary - Published: July 11, 2010
Five of the six candidates for governor are departing positions of importance in state government. The result is a lot of action trickling down the ticket. Brian Dubie and Deb Markowitz have each opened up a statewide slot and the three departing senators on the Democratic side — Susan Bartlett, Doug Racine and Peter Shumlin — have insured that the Senate will have a dramatically different power structure come January. Only former legislator Matt Dunne comes back to the public scene from a role in private life. What follows are some observations on the races that have opened up when these folks decided to climb the political ladder — also some early prognostication about likely outcomes. These predictions will, of course, be open to prideful or painful review at a later date.
My first fearless prediction is that Democrats or Republicans will win all these races. There are no Progressive, independent or other candidates in any of these tilts with the traction to win or even to dramatically affect the outcome.
Lt. Gov. Brian Dubie is the lone Republican in the governor's race. His departure leaves the penultimate spot in the executive branch up for grabs. And there are takers. On the Democratic side Steve Howard of Rutland is probably the more well known, the other candidate being fellow legislator Chris Bray of New Haven. Howard has served in the House for a total of 12 years since 1993. He is a political and communications consultant, literally a political pro, and an insider in every way. Also in communications, Bray runs his own company and is a farmer. He has served in the House for the past three terms.
The Republican side of this race is particularly compelling, with Mark Snelling running against Washington County Senator Phil Scott. Snelling is the scion of a Vermont political clan, son of Governor Richard Snelling and Lieutenant Governor Barbara Snelling and brother of current Chittenden County Senator Diane Snelling. An electoral neophyte, Snelling squares off against fellow businessman Scott — a very popular senator and a well-known racecar driver. Prediction. Snelling rides Chittenden County to the nomination and beats Howard in the fall. It is close.
Deb Markowitz is leaving her role as Secretary of State, the office she has held for the past twelve years. And there are takers here as well. On the Democratic side the two contenders are former Chittenden County Senator Jim Condos and Montpelier lawyer Charles Merriman. Merriman has an uphill fight against Condos who has Chittenden county name recognition, and a number of key endorsements. Merriman, on the other hand, has been working to build his relationships with Town Clerks, folks whose opinions about this race often carry a lot of weight locally.
On the Republican side the race is between lawyer Chris Roy of Williston and Jason Gibbs of Duxbury, youthful but longtime member of Jim Douglas' inner circle. Roy's rhetoric has an eerie similarity to Markowitz's gubernatorial line — no more "politics as usual" in Montpelier is the mantra. Gibbs is relying on his ties to Jim Douglas and his various high profile jobs in the administration to move him ahead. Interestingly the only one of these candidates who is actually talking much about the job of Secretary of State is Merriman. But few are listening. Prediction. Condos beats Merriman and Gibbs beats Roy. Condos wins in November. This one could also be very close.
And the senators.
What the Bartlett, Racine and Shumlin departure will mean in terms of the power balance in the Senate will be fascinating, but perhaps best left until we know exactly what that balance will be. Suffice it to say that empty slots in the President Pro Tem's office [Shumlin] and at the head of the table on the Appropriations Committee [Bartlett] are dramatic changes enough, not to mention the seniority of these three veterans. But who are the freshmen who will fill these large senatorial shoes?
An interesting race is emerging in Peter Shumlin's Windham County Senate district. It is a two-member district and — with all respect to Republican Hillary Cooke — the voters will once again return two Democrats. So the real contest will be in the three-way Democratic primary. Incumbent Senator Jeanette White seems pretty secure, but the race for the Shumlin seat looks like a dogfight. Democrat Toby Young — a former House member, Chairman of the Health and Welfare Committee and a longtime advocate at the legislature — is in the race, along with Peter Galbraith of Townshend — one of the most adamant critical voices in the international debate on Iraq and Afghanistan. Ambassador to Croatia during the Clinton administration, Galbraith was relieved of his most recent U.N. post for speaking out about voter fraud in Afghanistan. This could make him a bit of a hero in Windham County. The primary looks tight. White has incumbency. Young has local networks and state experience. Galbraith has international name recognition. Prediction. My guess — and that's all it is — is that White and Galbraith survive in August to win in November.
Two seats have opened up in the six member Chittenden County district — with Doug Racine in the governor's race and Senator Ed Flanagan leaving to run for his old job as Auditor. The four incumbents — Democrats Tim Ashe, Ginny Lyons and Hinda Miller and Republican Diane Snelling — should probably all be safe. I predict that three candidates — two Democrats and one Republican — will be vying for the two remaining seats come November. They are former House member and Judiciary Committee Chair Sally Fox, author and commentator Phillip Baruth and Douglas administration Secretary of Human Services and Secretary of Administration, Republican Charlie Smith. Despite a resume as long and impressive as anyone's I think this is a tough race for Smith. Prediction. My guess is that Baruth and Fox will prevail, filling out the Chittenden delegation. But this one is as predictable as musical chairs.
And then there is Lamoille County. Susan Bartlett, who often struggled to hold this seat, has left a squeaker in her wake. Two former House members — Republican Richard Westman of Cambridge and Democrat David Yacavone of Morrisville — will tussle over this single seat. Neither has primary opposition. Yacavone worked in the Dean administration as Commissioner of Aging and Disabilities and is a health care specialist and lobbyist. Westman had a twenty-five year career in the House, leaving just this past year to take the job of Tax Commissioner. Both are well known, well liked and will run energetic campaigns. Prediction. Edge to Westman.
So that's trickle down democracy for you. This is the sort of transitional moment that brings folks out of the woodwork — some freshly minted and a few gently recycled. No matter how much people love to complain about democratic government, somebody always wants to get in or stay in the game.
And the game is on.
Press Pass note: In last week's column an error of mine — a misplaced quotation mark — made it look as if the final line was a continuation of the comments of Senator Mike Mansfield. That particular pun — for good or ill — was mine.
p.mallary@gmail.com
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