Hurricane season as good as over, experts say
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By KEN KAYE Sun Sentinel - Published: November 21, 2009
FORT LAUDERDALE, Fla. — The 2009 Atlantic hurricane season is essentially over, even though it officially ends Nov. 30.
So say Jeff Masters, chief meteorologist of Weather Underground, an online weather site; and William Gray, the well-known Colorado State University hurricane forecaster.
Because El Nino has created strong wind shear over the tropics, "the odds of a storm are very, very small from this point on," said Gray, who on Thursday closed the book on the 2009 season.
However, the National Hurricane Center in Miami-Dade County, Fla., says not so fast; it's possible the wind shear could relax over the coming weeks and the waters in the Caribbean are still warm enough to support storm formation.
"The hurricane season goes until Nov. 30. Each day we get closer to that, it looks better and better that we won't see any more tropical activity," said center spokesman Dennis Feltgen. "But don't raid the hurricane kit yet."
Feltgen said that two weeks ago the hurricane season also looked like it was over. But then Ida formed south of the wind shear in the western Caribbean. And he said it wouldn't be unusual for a storm to develop in December.
"Tropical cyclones have been recorded in every month outside of the standard June through November period," he said.
But Masters said since 1950, in years where El Nino has emerged, only three named storms have developed in the Atlantic after Nov. 15.
El Nino is created by a warming of the equatorial Eastern Pacific Ocean. It generates wind shear and instability in the atmosphere, which acts to disrupt storms before they can build and strengthen.
If the season has in fact shut down, it would be considered a breeze.
In all, nine named storms, including three hurricanes, formed. Only hurricanes Bill and Fred had winds greater than 110 mph.
The average season sees 11 named storms, including six hurricanes, two intense.
"It was a very inactive season," Gray said.
Indeed, if no new storms form, it would be the slowest season since 1997, when seven named storms, including three hurricanes, developed. Although 2006 also recorded nine named storms, five of those were hurricanes.
Only two storms struck the U.S. coastline this year — Claudette and Tropical Storm Ida, which hit Alabama on Nov. 10 after initially strengthening into a Category 2 hurricane while in the Gulf of Mexico.
Otherwise, no hurricanes struck any coastline, although Bill brushed Nova Scotia in late August and Ida brushed Mexico's Yucatan earlier this month.
Ida turned out to be the most damaging storm of the season, producing heavy rains over much of the Southeast and roughing up the Mid-Atlantic coast with howling winds and rising waters in the past week.
Experts agree that El Nino is largely to thank for making it a tame season.
In the past two weeks, it has strengthened considerably, increasing wind shear "significantly" over the tropical Atlantic, Masters said.
While it's still possible a subtropical storm could form in the distant Atlantic, even Feltgen admits, "So far, it's looking good."
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