Vermonters watch New York race unfold
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By DANIEL BARLOW Vermont Press Bureau - Published: November 3, 2009
MONTPELIER – Vermonters have heard the advertisements.
Republican Dede Scozzafava is a "typical Albany politician," one ad claims. "What is [Democrat] Bill Owens hiding?" asks another. Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman "is an outsider," another ad states, "no one owns him."
Across the lake from Vermont, residents of the 23rd congressional district of New York State head to the polls today for a U.S. House race that some say has national implications – and also a host of negative advertisements that have cost more than $2 million dollars.
Advertisements for the race, which up until Friday featured three candidates, have routinely played on WPTZ television, which broadcasts out of Burlington and Plattsburgh, N.Y.
Today, the race centers now on Conservative Party candidate Hoffman and Democratic candidate Owens after the Republican candidate, Scozzafava, dropped out last week once polls showed her in a distant third place. She endorsed Owens for the seat.
"I would give Hoffman a slight edge in this race because that district heavily favors Republicans," said Eric Davis, a retired professor of political science at Middlebury College. "The Hoffman campaign is the one that is generating excitement among supporters."
Scozzafava was the party favorite earlier this year to fill the seat in today's special election, which was scheduled after Republican Rep. John McHugh accepted a position in the Obama administration.
But in recent months, Hoffman, supported by grassroots conservative activists and national figures such as Sarah Palin and Rush Limbaugh, shot ahead in the polls. Polls on Monday had him beating Owens by five points.
FOX News host Glenn Beck, in a recent interview with Hoffman, said New York residents "can vote for principles or they can vote for party." But Rob Roper, the outgoing chairman of the Vermont Republican Party, said the race is not about Republican vs. conservative or establishment vs. grassroots.
"This is a good thing for the party," Roper said. "If there had been a primary, Hoffman would have won and would be facing Owens in the general election."
Scozzafava was too liberal for the district, which heavily leans Republican, Roper said, citing her support for union card check elections and tax increases. What is playing out is the Republican base gravitating towards politicians who share their core beliefs, he explained.
"The voters care about financial issues and are supporting the candidate who represents their real base values and concerns," he said.
Depending on whom you ask, the NY District 23 race either represents the Republican party flexing its own muscles to reaffirm its core beliefs or the Republican party narrowing its focus and ditching moderates.
Judy Bevans, the chairwoman of the Vermont Democratic Party, said the race reminds her of the Coen Brothers film, "No Country for Old Men." Bevans organized a trip to New York State over the weekend that had Vermont Democrats campaigning for Owen.
"This version is 'No Party for Moderates,'" Bevans said Monday. "There clearly is no room for moderates in this Republican Party."
Vermont Democrats were on the other end of that accusation just months ago when State Auditor Thomas Salmon Jr. left the Democratic Party and became a Republican. The move prompted Roper to write that the Democratic Party is "dominated by the highly partisan agendas of a few ideological special interest groups who have no room or even tolerance for moderate voices."
Carolyn Prasch, the chairwoman of the Grand Isle Democratic Committee, was one of a handful of Vermonters to travel by ferry over Lake Champlain Sunday to campaign for Owens, the Democrat in the New York State House race.
She said she spent nearly eight hours knocking on doors of likely Democratic voters and found a lot of support for Owen, despite the polls.
"A lot of people already knew about the race and told us they planned to support Bill," she said.
Davis said he doubts that the New York race will mean anything for Vermont politics next year. A conservative uprising to challenge Republicans who are perceived as out-of-touch with the grassroots is unlikely in the Green Mountain State, he said.
"First of all, there just aren't that many Republicans in the state," Davis said. "And there are even fewer populist conservatives living here."
Daniel.Barlow
@timesargus.com.
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