Campaign coffers hint a clue to political potential
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By Peter Hirschfeld Vermont Press Bureau - Published: July 11, 2009
In a recent letter to supporters, Secretary of State and Democratic gubernatorial hopeful Deb Markowitz pleaded for financial contributions in advance of next week's campaign filing deadline.
Suggested donations of $50, $100, or even $250, she wrote, would propel her candidacy as it races toward the "first major marker of our campaign's strength."
Next Wednesday, candidates in Vermont's still-distant 2010 race for governor will unveil their fundraising totals to date. It's still early – too early, many observers say – to use the figures to anoint a presumptive favorite. And all the candidates say positions on key issues, and their records on them, are of far more importance to prospective voters than how much money a campaign can raise.
But as Democrats – three have announced plans to run so far – joust for front-runner status in a primary election still one year away, their capacity to raise money is one indicator of their political potential.
"What do the numbers mean? The numbers mean Vermonters are excited about your candidacy or not," Markowitz said. "In this filing, I think what will be demonstrated is we have broad support from Vermonters all around the state."
Both Markowitz and Chittenden County Sen. Doug Racine are trying to amass campaign war chests substantial enough to win a contested primary, and then a general election against a well-funded Republican incumbent. Gov. James Douglas, according to the last filing in December, carries nearly a quarter-million dollars into the 2010 cycle.
Lamoille County Sen. Susan Bartlett, also bidding for the Democratic nod, has yet to raise a cent. She says she'll soon begin the fundraising necessary to run her campaign.
"It's important to me to build a foundation for the campaign," says Racine. "And part of the foundation is fundraising."
Hiring a staff and communicating with prospective supporters via print, airwaves, radio and the Web, Racine says, all require significant financial resources. Still, he says people shouldn't overplay the significance of Wednesday's filing deadline.
"I think there's a tendency on the part of pundits and observers to always have a winner and a loser," Racine says. "There are parts of my campaign that are going well, and I'm sure other candidates feel the same way about their campaign. And there are other candidates who could still get in and be credible candidates and they haven't raised a nickel."
Eric Davis, professor emeritus of political science at Middlebury College, says Markowitz will likely reveal the deepest campaign coffers at next week's deadline. But the early yardstick, according to Davis, won't necessarily signal her political dominance; both Markowitz and Racine say they know how much they have in-hand, however neither would provide the figures.
"It's a useful marker and it gives us information but there's still a long way to go before voters are really in large numbers making decisions on this," Davis says.
While money may be necessary, according to Davis, so is a committed base of grassroots supporters. He says he'll be looking not only at fundraising totals, but also the number of contributors.
"We learned from the Obama campaign that it's not just aggregate dollars raised, it's also how many donors you have," Davis says.
Those donors' residencies, Davis says, also offer insight into a campaign's potential.
"I'll be looking to see how much of the money came from inside the state and how much from outside," Davis says. "It's so expensive to run a race in Vermont, and in a competitive race you can't raise your money solely in-state. But in-state contributions are an indicator of the amount of grassroots support you have."
That grassroots support, Davis says, could be particularly important in a Democratic primary that will likely draw only about a third of the Vermont electorate.
Bartlett finds the fixation on money a relatively new phenomenon in Vermont politics.
"Before Douglas ran for governor, it was about going out and meeting people," Bartlett says. "He introduced the high-spending gubernatorial races, so now you have people focusing on this in a way that they did not used to."
Douglas has proven an adept fundraiser, consistently topping seven figures in Vermont's two-year election cycles. But former campaign staffer (and current administration spokeswoman) Dennise Casey says the governor's electoral success derives more from personal interaction and policy than it does from his considerable campaign budgets.
"It is always important, no matter what point of the campaign you're in, to be well-funded," Casey says. "But as someone who has now been intimately involved in four statewide campaigns, I think Vermonters expect their candidate for governor to get out and about, shake hands and meet them, and that has certainly not changed. What is more important than money, for sure, is a candidate's position on important issues and their record."
Even as she bemoans the role of money in Vermont politics, Bartlett says her own success rides in no small measure on her ability to raise cash. She figures she'll need at least three-quarters of a million dollars to unseat Douglas.
"You need to raise enough money to be competitive," Bartlett says. "Like it or not, that's just what you need to do."
Next week's filing deadline will be the last opportunity for some time to gauge candidate's fund-raising prowess.
Campaigns won't be required to disclose contributions again until July of 2010.
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