Russian roulette
Toolbox
Published: October 8, 2008
uite naturally, we Americans are deeply distressed about the wobbly state of our economy and, although they're not making head- lines right now, we also worry that our country's relations with Russia have again turned sour after a period of relative comfort following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
The economy is very much an international issue. World markets are in just as much turmoil as Wall Street. But we tend to focus on the financial troubles in Germany, France, Great Britain and other western nations while paying little attention to what's happening in Russia.
Well, what's happening in Russia is, for Americans, both good news and bad news. It's good in the sense that Moscow's top priority isn't, as we might have feared, military expansionism or international trouble-making but internal reforms. It's bad in that it's a reminder that the financial strains being felt here at home are truly international in scope and therefore all the more difficult to resolve.
"The new Russia's resurgence has been fueled – quite literally – by windfall profits from gas and oil, a big jump in defense spending and the cocky attitude on such display during the mauling of Georgia … many now believe that the powerful Russian bear of the Cold War years is coming out of hibernation," Murray Fleshbach, a senior scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and a research professor emeritus at Georgetown University's School of Foreign Service, wrote recently.
But then, in an essay published last week by The Washington Post, Fleshbach added: "Not so fast. Predictions that Russia will again become powerful, rich and influential ignore some simply devastating problems at home that block any march to power. Sure, Russia's army could take tiny Georgia. But (Vladimir) Putin's military is still in tatters, armed with rusting weaponry and staffed with indifferent recruits. Meanwhile, a declining population is robbing the military of a new generation of soldiers. Russia's economy is almost totally dependent on the price of oil. And, worst of all, it's facing a public health crisis that verges on the catastrophic."
To support his argument, Fleshbach (who has visited Russia more than 50 times over the years) cited major issues confronting the leadership in Moscow: "Russian society may actually be weaker than it was even during Soviet times," he wrote. "The Kremlin's recent military adventures and tough talk are the bluster of the frail, not the swagger of the strong."
He conceded that Russia "capitalized impressively" on its own oil industry, but cautioned that the volatility of the world oil market "means that Putin cannot count on a long-term pipeline of cash flowing from high oil prices." As the price of a barrel of oil falls, Putin's ambitious agendas, both foreign and domestic, will be hobbled, he added.
Then came Fleshbach's most surprising observation: "Something even larger is blocking Russia's march. Recent decades, most notably since the breakup of the Soviet Union in 1991, have seen an appalling deterioration in the health of the Russian population, anchoring Russia not in the forefront of developed countries but among the most backward of nations. This is a tragedy of huge proportions."
He described a Russia beset with a woeful array of medical woes and an average male life expectancy of only 59 years, or 166th in the world. Clearly, Putin and his Kremlin partners have their hands full.
We have our own problems, obviously, but fearing a resurgent Russia need not be near the top of our list.
61