Poll position depends on who's asking
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By David Jackson The Dallas Morning News - Published: September 18, 2004
WASHINGTON — President Bush has a double-digit lead over John Kerry.
Unless it's a dead heat.
It all depends on which poll you believe.
Surveys released this week range from a 13-point Bush edge to a 1-point Kerry comeback, reflecting the fact that polls can be as volatile as the political races they try to reflect.
"When there's a lot of information in the environment — a lot of controversial information ... we often find polls that end up with quite conflicting results," said David W. Moore, senior editor with Gallup.
Republicans love the new Gallup poll, which gives Bush a lead of 55 percent to 42 percent among likely voters. The lead shrinks to eight among registered voters, 52-44 percent. The poll has an error margin of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
Democrats prefer a Harris poll giving Kerry a 1-point lead, 48-47.
And sometimes the variances are within one survey. One wave of questions in the Pew Research Center poll, posed Sept. 11-14, showed a 46-46 tie among registered voters. But questions taken the three previous days gave Bush a 12-point lead, 52-40. Both surveys had error margins of 3 percent.
Some analysts attributed the differences to a fast-paced race: Violence in Iraq, uncertainty over the economy, Republican claims of Kerry flip-flopping, Kerry accusations that Bush is misleading the nation, questions about Bush's National Guard service, and disputes over whether documents used to report on that service were real.
The ways polls are conducted are another factor, analysts said.
There are differing definitions of likely voters, and the demographic and political makeup of the sampled voters. Some polls are believed to lean Republican, others Democratic.
The rise of cell phones has made it harder for pollsters to track down respondents, analysts said, and a rising number of people don't want to participate at all.
"There are a lot of things that could explain these discrepancies," said Karlyn Bowman, who analyzes polls for the Washington-based American Enterprise Institute.
Analysts and campaign aides said the best thing to do is average several polls at the same time. Kerry aides said Bush may enjoy a lead of 2 points or so nationally, but the convention bounce that had given him a commanding lead has dissipated.
"We are looking at a race that is very tight, both nationally and in the battleground states," said Kerry strategist Joe Lockhart.
Said Bush campaign spokesman Reed Dickens: "At this point, we would much rather have our candidate's message, record, and poll position than theirs."
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